(ZENIT News / Washington, D.C., 18.10.2024).- With elections just around the corner, a new survey carried out by the National Catholic Reporter, a progressive leftist media, sheds light on a key Catholic group of voters that could define the result in the most disputed States. Although Donald Trump leads with an advantage of 5 percentage points over Kamala Harris among Catholic voters in decisive States, the scene is more complex than it seems.
A Divided Catholic Electorate
The survey reveals that Catholics in these States are profoundly divided, not only in their political preferences, but also in the values that guide their vote. Whereas Trump has the support of the majority of white Catholics, his advantage diminishes significantly among Hispanic and Black voters, where Harris has a marked advantage. About 70% of Hispanic voters and over 75% of Black voters favor Harris, due, to a large extent, to strong opposition to Trump and affinity with the progressive positions of the Vice-President on social issues.
Reasons Behind the Vote
In many cases, support for both candidates seems to go against the traditional teachings of the Catholic Church. While many Trump supporters back him for his hard position against immigration, an issue of which Pope Francis has been a vocal critic, Harris’ supporters mention her defense of reproductive rights, which clashes with Catholic teaching on abortion.
The predominant issue for Catholic voters is the economy, followed by immigration, access to medical care and crime. These issues reflect the reality that daily concerns often surpass religious positions at the ballot box. Although the majority of those surveyed identify themselves as “pro-life,” in the majority of cases more than half think abortion should be legal, which reflects the tensions between religious beliefs and personal policies.
The Role of Faith in Politics
Although two-thirds of the Catholic voters state that their religious beliefs influence their political positions, the clergy has a limited impact in their electoral decisions. Those surveyed said their strongest influences came from Jesus, the family and friends, instead of priests, Bishops or Pope Francis. However, the Holy Father continues being a very respected figure, with 62% of approval, although this figure has dropped in recent years.
The Challenge to Capture the Catholic Vote
Both Trump and Harris have launched specific campaigns to attract Catholic voters in States like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which represent an important part of the electorate. However, the Catholic vote is not a monolithic block. In Wisconsin, for instance, Trump leads among Catholics by 18 points, whereas in Michigan his advantage is of 12 points. However, these figures vary according to the State and the demographic group, which makes it difficult to predict with certainty, in what direction the Catholic vote as a whole will go.
A Reflection of the Nation
According to experts in religion and politics, the Catholic electorate is a microcosm of the political division the United States is experiencing. Whereas white Catholics tend to support Trump, Catholic Hispanics and Blacks are more aligned with Harris, reflecting the country’s polarization. This division could be crucial in States where the difference between both candidates is minimal, and where Catholics could tip the balance.
The Uncertain Future of the Catholic Vote
As the elections approach, the Catholic vote continues being an enigma. Although some analysts have suggested that Latinos are getting closer to the Republican Party, the survey doesn’t give clear evidence of this change in key States. What is clear is that the Catholic vote could be decisive in this very close contest. The question is: what issue or value will end up tilting this group of voters?
