(ZENIT News / Washington, 02.12.2026).- One year into President Donald Trump’s second term, the religious map of American politics looks strikingly familiar—yet not entirely unchanged. A new Pew Research Center survey conducted from January 20 to 26, 2026, among 8,512 adults in its American Trends Panel (with a margin of error of ±1.4 percentage points), shows that while core constituencies remain broadly aligned, enthusiasm has softened across most major religious groups.
The headline finding is less about dramatic realignment and more about erosion at the margins. White evangelical Protestants continue to stand out as Trump’s most reliable religious supporters. Sixty-nine percent approve of the way he is handling the presidency, making them the only large religious group in which a clear majority expresses approval. A majority (58%) say they back all or most of his plans and policies.
Yet even within this bastion of support, the trajectory is downward. At the beginning of 2025, Trump’s approval rating among white evangelicals stood at 78%; it now measures 69%. Support for his agenda has declined by 8 percentage points over the same period. Even more striking is the drop in moral confidence: the proportion who express strong trust in Trump’s ethical conduct in office has fallen by 15 points. Currently, 40% of white evangelicals say they have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in his ethics—still comparatively high, but noticeably diminished.
The shift mirrors a broader pattern. Across the entire U.S. adult population, support for all or most of Trump’s plans has declined from 35% in early 2025 to 27% today—an 8-point drop. The cooling is not confined to ideological opponents; it is visible, to varying degrees, within many segments of his coalition.
Among Catholics, the picture is nuanced and internally divided. White Catholics show only modest movement. In 2025, 51% said they supported all or most of Trump’s plans and policies; that figure now stands at 46%. Approval of his job performance among white Catholics has likewise slipped from 59% to 52%. Confidence in his ethical conduct has edged down from 39% to 34%.
Hispanic Catholics, who traditionally lean Democratic, continue to register substantially lower levels of support. Only 18% now say they back all or most of Trump’s agenda, compared with 20% a year earlier. Approval of his performance has fallen from 31% to 23%. Trust in his ethics has dropped even more sharply, from 22% to 14%.
Taken together, these figures suggest relative stability in Catholic attitudes, especially when contrasted with sharper declines elsewhere. Pew characterizes Catholic support for Trump’s agenda as having “not changed significantly” over the past year—particularly when statistical confidence levels are applied. In fact, Hispanic Catholics are the only major religious group in which the decline in approval since early 2025 is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, though it does reach significance at 90%.
White non-evangelical Protestants have experienced more pronounced shifts. Support for Trump’s plans and policies has fallen 13 points, from 46% to 33%. Confidence in his ethical conduct has declined from 38% to 26%. Currently, 46% approve of his job performance—lower than among white Catholics and far below white evangelicals.
Americans with no religious affiliation—the so-called “nones,” a category encompassing atheists, agnostics and those who describe their religion as “nothing in particular”—show even lower levels of support. Only 13% now say they back all or most of Trump’s plans, down from 20% a year ago. Approval of his job performance stands at 24%. Just 10% express strong confidence in his ethical conduct, compared with 16% in 2025.
Black Protestants remain the least supportive of the president. Only 6% say they support all or most of his agenda (down from 8%), and just 12% approve of his job performance. As in previous cycles, this group—overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic Party—registers minimal confidence in Trump’s ethics.
For analysts of religion and public life, these numbers reinforce a familiar structural reality: religious affiliation in the United States remains strongly correlated with partisan identity. White evangelicals are predominantly Republican, and their comparatively favorable view of Trump reflects that orientation. At the same time, the data suggest that even within Republican-leaning constituencies, enthusiasm has moderated since the early months of the second term.
The ethical dimension is particularly telling. Across multiple religious groups—including white Catholics, white non-evangelical Protestants and the religiously unaffiliated—confidence in Trump’s moral conduct has declined. While approval of policies and performance can fluctuate with economic or geopolitical developments, perceptions of personal integrity often shape longer-term political durability.
It is also worth noting what the survey does not show. Smaller religious communities—such as Latter-day Saints, Orthodox Christians, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus—were not represented in sufficient numbers to generate separate, statistically reliable breakdowns for all questions. As a result, the analysis focuses on larger Christian categories and the religiously unaffiliated.
From a broader perspective, the 2026 data suggest consolidation rather than transformation. White evangelicals remain Trump’s strongest religious base, though somewhat less emphatically than at the outset of his term. Catholics, long considered a bellwether in American politics due to their internal diversity, display relative steadiness overall, albeit with clear contrasts between white and Hispanic members. Meanwhile, declines in support among non-evangelical Protestants and the religiously unaffiliated underscore a gradual softening beyond the president’s most loyal constituency.
In short, the religious landscape after one year of Trump’s renewed presidency is neither static nor revolutionary. It reflects continuity under strain: enduring alignments tempered by incremental shifts in confidence, particularly on questions of ethics. For political strategists and church leaders alike, the lesson is clear. Faith communities remain pivotal actors in the American public square—but even the firmest alliances are subject to recalibration over time.
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