(ZENIT News / Rome, 04.27.2025).- Who is leading the bookmakers’ lists to become the next Pope? In Great Britain, the list is topped by Cardinals Parolin and Tagle.
Cardinal Parolin has solidified his position as the favorite among English bookmakers: the odds for the Vatican Secretary of State are now 3.25 at William Hill. Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has lost ground compared to the early hours following the death of Pope Francis, with his odds rising from 2.75 to 4.00 to 1.
Another Italian, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna, is now the third name on British bookmakers’ lists, at 7 to 1, ahead of Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah. The election of a Black cardinal to the papacy pays 9 to 1, the same odds offered for Lombard Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa. Among the less favored candidates is Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő (11 to 1).
In the United States, betting activity has also surged. The website Casinos shared an update through a statement sent to ZENIT (the text shared below is part of the statement):
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – +275 (Implied Probability: 26.7%)
As the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Parolin is the current favorite. At 70, his deep diplomatic experience and steady presence make him a frontrunner for those seeking stability.
“Parolin is the clear continuity candidate. He knows the Roman Curia inside and out and has the institutional trust to guide the Church through this transition,” said Murphy.
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – +500 (Implied Probability: 16.7%)
A charismatic figure with strong backing across Asia and the Global South, Tagle represents a younger, pastoral voice aligned with many of Pope Francis’s core reforms.
“Tagle would represent a shift in geography but not necessarily ideology,” Murphy said. “His election would mark a historic moment for Asia—and a reaffirmation of Francis’s vision.”
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – +800 (Implied Probability: 11.1%)
Known for his peacebuilding efforts and outreach to marginalized groups, Zuppi is widely respected in Italy and has close ties to the influential Sant’Egidio community.
“Zuppi is seen as a bridge-builder—someone who could unify different factions within the Church while continuing Francis’s social justice mission,” said Murphy.
- Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada) – +1000 (Implied Probability: 9.1%)
Ouellet is a seasoned Vatican insider with deep theological credentials, but his chances may hinge on whether the conclave wants to lean back toward tradition.
“Ouellet has the intellectual depth and doctrinal authority many conservatives admire—but his past proximity to Vatican leadership may be a double-edged sword,” Murphy explained.
- Cardinal Raymond Burke (United States) – +1000 (Implied Probability: 9.1%)
One of the most vocal critics of Pope Francis’s reforms, Burke would represent a dramatic reversal in tone and governance.
“Burke’s path to the papacy is unlikely, but not impossible. If the conclave were to swing hard toward tradition, his name would be on the shortlist,” said Murphy.
- Cardinal Agostino Vallini (Italy) – +1200 (Implied Probability: 7.7%)
A respected Church elder and former Vicar General of Rome, Vallini has the experience but may be viewed as a transitional or symbolic candidate due to his age.
“Vallini is admired for his pastoral wisdom, but at 84, his candidacy would likely be seen as short-term,” said Murphy.
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