(ZENIT News / Washington, 09.09.2024).- With the 2024 U.S. presidential election looming, Vice President Kamala Harris is emerging as the favored candidate among Catholic voters, surpassing former President Donald Trump. A new EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research survey reveals that Harris holds a 50% to 43% lead over Trump among Catholic voters nationwide, just two months before Election Day. The survey, conducted from August 28-30, offers insight into the priorities and divisions shaping this key voter demographic.
The economy remains the top issue for Catholic voters, with more than half identifying it as their primary concern. However, the survey also uncovers significant gender and demographic gaps that could shape the outcome of the election. Harris’s lead is particularly strong among Catholic Latino voters, where she commands 60% of the vote compared to Trump’s 30%, a key advantage in a community growing in influence within American Catholicism. Similarly, Harris dominates among Catholic African American voters with an overwhelming 82% support, and among Catholic Asian voters, where she leads 58% to 35%.
Interestingly, while Trump maintains a 52% to 42% lead among non-Hispanic white Catholic voters, Harris shows strength across all other age groups. Notably, her smallest margin is among younger Catholic voters aged 18-29, where she holds a narrow 44% to 43% lead. These younger voters, many of whom will cast their first ballots in 2024, may be pivotal as the race tightens.
Gender and Political Divide Among Catholics
A pronounced gender gap is also shaping the Catholic vote. Female Catholic voters are backing Harris 56% to 37%, while male Catholic voters lean toward Trump at 49% to 43%. This gender divide extends to congressional preferences, with 49% of Catholics supporting the Democratic candidate and 41% favoring Republicans. Female Catholic voters continue to show strong support for Democrats, while men tend to favor Republicans, particularly on issues such as border security and immigration.
These divisions reflect broader differences in priorities between male and female Catholic voters. While both rank the economy as their primary concern, abortion emerges as the second most important issue for Catholic women, with nearly 13% citing it as a priority. In contrast, Catholic men rank border security and immigration as their second most pressing issue. The survey also highlights a complex picture on abortion policy, with Catholics divided over whether the federal or state governments should regulate the issue, or if it should remain outside government control altogether.
Foreign Policy and Cultural Divides
The survey also captures Catholic voters’ views on pressing foreign policy issues. On the Israel-Hamas conflict, voters are evenly split, with 41% finding Israel’s response to Hamas’ attacks acceptable, and 39% deeming it unacceptable. When it comes to U.S. support for Ukraine amid the Russian invasion, 37% of Catholic voters believe the U.S. is offering too much support, while 36% think the level of aid is appropriate. Despite these differences, a clear majority of Catholics view China as a significant or severe threat, reflecting growing concerns over the country’s influence.
On cultural issues, Catholic voters express more unified views. Half oppose puberty blockers and gender-related surgeries for minors, with only 14% supporting both procedures. Additionally, 67% of Catholics believe that transgender women—those born male—should not compete in women’s sports. These cultural debates continue to resonate within the electorate as pivotal issues in the broader national discourse.
Mass Attendance and Voter Behavior
The poll also reveals surprising trends regarding Mass attendance, which has traditionally been a reliable indicator of political leanings among Catholic voters. Harris holds a lead among nearly all categories of Mass-goers, except for daily attendees, who favor Trump 55% to 30%. This suggests that, unlike in past elections, regular church attendance may not be as closely aligned with support for the Republican candidate as previously thought.
As Election Day approaches, this volatile political climate is likely to experience further shifts. With both national polls and battleground state races showing tight margins, Catholic voters are poised to play a decisive role in determining the next occupant of the White House. The upcoming presidential debates, as well as unforeseen global events, could sway public opinion in the final weeks of the campaign. EWTN News and RealClear Opinion Research will continue to monitor Catholic voter sentiment as the race progresses.
In an election where every vote counts, Catholic voters may very well tip the balance.
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