(ZENIT News / Washington, 01.12.2026).- For the first time in modern American history, a generational line has been crossed that few demographers expected to see. Among Generation Z—those born from the mid-1990s onward—Catholics now outnumber Protestants. The shift is modest in raw percentages, but profound in its symbolic and historical implications for a country long defined by Protestant majorities.
According to data from the 2023 Cooperative Election Study (CES), 21 percent of Gen Z adults identify as Catholic, compared with 19 percent who describe themselves as Protestant. It is a narrow margin, but enough to invert a demographic pattern that dominated the United States for centuries. In no previous generation—not among Baby Boomers, not among Generation X, not even among Millennials—had Catholic identification surpassed Protestant affiliation.
The CES is not a marginal survey. It is one of the largest and most respected population studies in the United States, drawing on extensive samples to track political, social, and religious identification. Its latest findings show a sharp decline in Protestant identification among younger Americans, paired with a comparatively stable Catholic presence. Between 2022 and 2023, Catholic identification among Gen Z even registered a slight increase, a notable detail in an era marked by overall religious decline.
To understand why this matters, some historical context is essential. The United States was shaped by Protestant Christianity from its earliest colonial foundations, particularly through British settlement and the enduring influence of evangelical movements. Catholicism grew significantly in the 20th century, driven largely by immigration from Europe and later from Latin America, but it always remained a numerical minority relative to the many Protestant denominations combined. That balance has now shifted—at least within this youngest adult generation.
What makes the Gen Z case particularly striking is that it unfolds against a backdrop of widespread secularization. This generation is consistently described by sociologists as less religious overall than its predecessors. Church attendance is lower, institutional trust is weaker, and the number of people who identify with no religion at all—the so-called “nones”—continues to rise. Yet within this more secular cohort, Catholic identity has proven more resilient than Protestant affiliation.
Researchers generally point to three converging dynamics behind the change. First, Protestant churches, especially mainline denominations, have experienced an accelerated loss of young adherents, often tied to cultural polarization and internal fragmentation. Second, Catholic identity, while far from immune to decline, has shown greater stability, functioning for many young adults as a cultural or familial marker even when active practice is limited. Third, the growth of the “nones” has disproportionately drawn from Protestant backgrounds, further reducing Protestant numbers among the young.
It is important to stress what this development does not mean. Catholics have not overtaken Protestants in the United States as a whole. Older generations remain more Protestant than Catholic, and the national religious landscape continues to tilt toward disaffiliation rather than conversion. What is happening is generational, not universal—a rebalancing within Gen Z rather than a wholesale transformation of American religion.
Nor is this phenomenon uniquely American. Similar patterns are emerging elsewhere in the Western world. In the United Kingdom, a recent study based on YouGov surveys commissioned by the Bible Society revealed a dramatic reconfiguration among young churchgoers aged 18 to 24. Only 20 percent now identify as Anglican, down from 30 percent in 2018. By contrast, 41 percent identify as Catholic, while 18 percent describe themselves as Pentecostal. The traditional dominance of Anglicanism among the young is eroding, replaced by a more fragmented and unexpectedly Catholic profile.
France offers yet another parallel. Despite its reputation as one of Europe’s most secular societies, the country witnessed what the Bishop of Arras, Olivier Leborgne, described as an “explosion” in the number of catechumens baptized during Easter Week last year. Adult baptisms, particularly among young people, have surged, suggesting not merely inherited identity but deliberate religious choice.
Taken together, these developments hint at a broader realignment rather than a simple decline. Christianity in the West is shrinking in overall numbers, but it is also changing shape. Among younger generations, Catholicism appears to be retaining—or in some contexts even regaining—ground relative to historic Protestant majorities. Whether this reflects theology, liturgy, community structures, or social dynamics remains a subject of debate.
What is clear is that Generation Z is rewriting assumptions long taken for granted in religious sociology. In a nation built on Protestant foundations, the youngest adults are quietly reshaping the map. The change is subtle, numerical, and easy to overlook—but in demographic terms, it marks the end of an era and the beginning of a new, less predictable religious landscape.
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