(ZENIT News / Washington, 06.29.2025).- 8 months after the U.S. election that gave Trump victory, a new study reveals how decisive the Catholic, Evangelical and Protestant vote is with facts and not just hypotheses.
Donald Trump made significant gains among a wider spectrum of religious Americans in the 2024 presidential election—reaching beyond his core evangelical base to secure more support from Catholics and non-evangelical Protestants, including minority groups, according to a new Pew Research Center study released June 26, 2025.
Based on a robust sample of 7,100 validated voters—those confirmed to have actually voted—Pew’s analysis shows that Trump captured 62% of the Protestant vote in 2024, up three points from 2020. Among Catholics, he saw a notable six-point increase, drawing 55% of their support. These gains helped him clinch a comeback victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, who represented the Democratic ticket.
The most striking development, however, was Trump’s surge among racial minority Protestants—particularly Hispanic and Asian Protestants, who are not typically considered part of his political stronghold. He won 70% of their votes, up from 55% in 2020. Even among Black Protestants, a demographic still overwhelmingly loyal to Democrats, Trump improved his share from 9% to 15%.
“This tells us Trump successfully expanded his coalition,” said John Green, senior fellow and former director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics. “He kept his core of white Christian support and reached out more effectively to Hispanic and Asian Protestant communities.”
Harris dominated among religiously unaffiliated voters—atheists, agnostics, and those who claim no religious identity—winning 70% of their votes. That number underscores an enduring cultural divide in American politics: one marked not only by policy but by identity, belief, and community belonging.
Among voters who attend religious services monthly or more, Trump prevailed nearly two-to-one. That group, though shrinking in proportion to the general population, remains a reliably high-turnout bloc. The study showed 64% of them voted for Trump in 2024, compared to 59% in 2020.
“People who stay engaged with religious institutions are more likely to vote,” Green noted. “Voting is not just a personal decision—it’s a communal act. When your community votes, you vote.”
Trump’s improved performance among Catholics may owe something to the nature of the 2024 race itself. Unlike in 2020, when he ran against President Joe Biden—a practicing Catholic—neither candidate in 2024 represented that faith tradition. Without a co-religionist on the ticket, Catholic voters may have been more responsive to other priorities, such as economic policy, religious liberty, or cultural issues.
But Trump’s appeal to Hispanic and Asian Protestants remains a puzzle to some observers, especially given his hardline stance on immigration. For Gabriel Salguero, founder of the National Latino Evangelical Coalition, the explanation lies in a convergence of theological and practical concerns.
“Latino evangelicals don’t vote based on a single issue,” Salguero said. “We’re concerned about family, economic stability, religious values, life ethics, and biblical marriage. Trump engaged directly—he visited our churches, he advertised on our radio stations. That matters.”
Salguero emphasized that Trump’s rhetoric on immigration was nuanced in the eyes of many Latino evangelicals. “There’s a perception that he’s focused on criminal elements, not on law-abiding families,” he said. “That makes a difference.”
The Pew report also reaffirmed longstanding demographic divides. Trump outpaced Harris by 14 points among voters without a college degree, doubling his 2016 advantage. He dominated rural areas by 40 points, an even greater margin than in past elections, and held a steady edge among older voters, winning 54% of those over 65.
By contrast, younger voters leaned heavily Democratic, with Harris maintaining strong support among Gen Z and millennials.
Despite the polarization, the study’s deeper narrative is about realignment: not the shattering of old coalitions, but their reshaping. Religious identity, often assumed to be a static political marker, is proving more fluid—especially among minority voters.
The data also raise important questions for Democrats, who may need to re-evaluate their messaging and outreach to faith-based communities beyond their traditional base.
While Trump’s critics argue that his policies often clashed with Christian values—particularly around immigration, compassion, and truthfulness—his resonance with certain faith groups suggests that policy platforms alone do not explain voter behavior. Symbolism, perceived authenticity, and targeted engagement often carry equal weight.
As the 2026 midterms approach, faith leaders like Salguero will be watching closely to see whether these shifts hold—or whether they were a one-time electoral anomaly.
The Pew survey’s margin of error is just 1.5 percentage points, making it one of the most statistically reliable portraits yet of the 2024 electorate. But its most enduring insight may not lie in who won, but in who changed. For political strategists, the message is clear: religious voters are listening, but not necessarily in the ways you think.
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